Executive summary
In May 2025, the Taliban regime intensified its grip on power through authoritarian centralization, ideological enforcement, and targeted suppression. While tactical gains in regional diplomacy and internal administrative cohesion were observed, the regime faces compounding internal rifts, growing public discontent, and regional unease. This monthly assessment dissects six major dimensions of the Taliban’s rule, including governance, social control, security dynamics, and regional relations.

1. Leadership Consolidation and Internal Control
Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada emerged unusually active, visiting Kabul and Kandahar to reinforce ideological unity and assert direct control over financial and intelligence operations. Fiscal authority was relocated to Kandahar, bypassing traditional bureaucratic structures.

These moves signal centralization but also underscore internal divisions, particularly over the stalled Loya Jirga and administrative purges.
– Key actions: Personnel reductions in military and civilian ranks, including the education sector.
– Result: Intensified friction among Kandahari leaders, the Haqqani network, and security ministries.

2. Structural Talibanization of Society
In May, the Taliban continued reshaping of Afghan society according to its strict interpretation of religious doctrine:
– 46 new madrassas established in 9 provinces
– Over 21,000 madrassas operating with over 3 million students
– Closure of 800 UN-backed literacy centers for girls in Logar, Paktia, and Panjshir
– Ban on image depiction in 18 provinces
This systemic transformation mirrors theocratic authoritarian models, dismantling civic institutions and modern education frameworks.

3. Intensified Repression and the Return to Rule by Fear
The resurgence of corporal punishment and arbitrary detentions reflects the Taliban’s strategy of ruling through fear and repression. By physically targeting perceived dissenters and carrying out justice outside legal frameworks, the regime seeks to reassert control and deter organized resistance.
These tactics, however, carry the risk of deepening public resentment and fostering long-term instability.

Despite international scrutiny and local reports, the Taliban deny such abuses, portraying their justice system as rehabilitative—an assertion that sharply contradicts documented evidence.
– Public floggings and summary trials took place in 16 provinces.
– 105 men and 11 women were lashed in public for alleged moral crimes (e.g., extramarital relations, theft, alcohol consumption, running away from home).
– Arbitrary arrests targeted:
● Former security personnel
● Members of opposition groups like the National Resistance Front and Freedom Front
● Journalists, activists, and local protesters
● On May, detentions and crackdowns were especially noted in Jurm, Shuhada, and Argo districts in Badakhshan province.
● Reports continue of torture, extrajudicial killings, and coercion of detainees’ families

4. Engagement with Religious Minorities: Tactical, Not Genuine
During May, the Taliban held meetings with Shi’a community leaders and made public assurances of support for their religious ceremonies in certain regions. However, these gestures stand in stark contrast to reports from multiple provinces of Shi’a religious texts being confiscated or burned.

The Taliban has established a dedicated department within its intelligence apparatus to manage Shi’a affairs, signaling a calculated strategy to co-opt Shi’a religious figures for the purposes of local control and to mitigate international criticism. This engagement is not indicative of religious tolerance, but rather a deliberate policy of surveillance and influence.

These efforts appear aimed at forestalling the emergence of organized Shi’a resistance by offering superficial accommodation while maintaining structural dominance. The Taliban’s interaction with religious minorities remains tactical in nature — a form of political containment rather than any genuine step toward inclusivity or pluralism.

5. Regional Manoeuvring of the Taliban – Pursuit of External Legitimacy
Ultimately, the Taliban’s approach hinges on securing unofficial recognition through sustained regional diplomacy. By cultivating pragmatic ties with neighboring and influential states — particularly Russia, China, Iran, and India — the group seeks to bypass global isolation and build de facto legitimacy.

This strategy focuses on economic cooperation, counterterrorism coordination, and symbolic inclusion in regional forums. While such engagement has yielded some success in normalizing relations with select actors, it remains transactional and cautious. Deep-seated concerns among regional powers — including terrorism, ideological radicalization, and geopolitical alignment — continue to limit the scope of trust and formal recognition.

These concerns are underscored by a range of specific threats cited by regional actors, including:
– The alleged presence of over 20 terrorist groups operating from Afghan soil (as stated by Russia’s defense minister at the end of May);
– The potential spillover of extremist activities into Central Asia;
– The Taliban’s suspected covert agenda in engaging with the West; and
– The proliferation of religious madrassas, viewed as vectors of ideological radicalization and future terrorism.

6. Security Landscape – Decline in Resistance Activity, Rise in Taliban Control
Compared to previous months, armed operations by anti-Taliban resistance factions appear to have decreased in both frequency and scale. The groups now emphasize low-intensity guerrilla warfare and localized tactical operations. The Taliban, in turn, has consolidated its grip in key provinces including Badakhshan, Takhar, Faryab, and Panjshir by intensifying security sweeps and surveillance.

Meanwhile, targeted killings continue to occur across various provinces, undermining the Taliban’s claim of comprehensive national security. The persistence of these targeted attacks reflects the fragility of Taliban control, particularly in rural and restive districts.

Despite holding a dominant military posture, the Taliban faces intensifying public dissatisfaction, systemic attrition within its own ranks, and an accelerating crisis of social legitimacy. Its inability to deliver essential services or govern inclusively is gradually corroding the authority it seeks to consolidate.

Conclusion and Outlook
May 2025 witnessed a further consolidation of Taliban rule characterized by intensified repression, the promotion of extremist religious ideology, and the systematic weakening of civil institutions. Internal fractures within the leadership, the initiation of challenging economic and military reforms, and tactical engagements with regional actors collectively reflect the Taliban’s efforts to secure internal stability while seeking external legitimacy.
Nonetheless, pervasive local repression, escalating violence against women, and widespread social discontent, catalyzing new waves of resistance or internal factionalism against Taliban regime in the near future.